本文摘要：Zune (tee hee). Vista (snort). Bing (BWA HA HA). Windows phone (Stop it!

Zune (tee hee). Vista (snort). Bing (BWA HA HA). Windows phone (Stop it! I can’t breathe!).Zune播放器（嘻嘻）。Vista操作系统（噗）。

Bing合于搜索引擎（哇哈哈哈）。Windows手机（别闹了！气都痛不过来了！）。Laugh all you want. Most of us do. Microsoft’s investors are laughing harder. Over the past two years, the shares have returned 94 per cent, absolutely crushing the results of (where to start?) Google, Apple, SAP, Oracle, IBM and VMware. Its market value has risen by $180bn.乐趣大笑吧。

我们大多数人都在大笑。微软公司(Microsoft)的投资者笑得更加开怀。

过去两年，微软公司股价下跌94%，精彩打败（从哪儿想起呢？）谷歌(Google)、苹果(Apple)、SAP、甲骨文(Oracle)、IBM和VMware的股票展现出。其市值减少了1800亿美元。What has happened? In the September quarter call with analysts two years ago, the word “PC” was used 23 times; in the most recent call, 11 times. The word “cloud”, on the other hand, went from 11 instances to 57. This sums it up. The company has gone — at least in the mind of the market — from being tied to a technology in permanent decline to being a company successfully delivering its product over the internet. It makes some sense, then, that the price surge is backed less by an increase in expected earnings than by a butterfly-like change in the valuation. The stock traded at nine times earnings two years ago. Now it goes for 17. The market anticipates sustained growth.再次发生了什么？两年前9月份这个季度的业绩公布后，在面向分析师举办的电话会议中，“PC”这个词的用于频率是23次；但最近一个季度的电话会议中，用于频率是11次。

另一方面，“云”这个词的频率从11次减少到57次。这就说明了问题。

该公司（最少在市场的脑海中）仍然与一种正处于永久衰败的技术挂勾，而早已转型为一家通过互联网顺利交付给产品的公司。因此，股价下跌有理由在较小程度上依赖预期盈利快速增长，在较小程度上受到类似于蝴蝶效应的估值变化的推展。两年前，该股市盈率是9倍。

现在相似17倍。市场预期持续增长。There is more to it than that, of course. As Bernstein Research notes, it also helps that what looked like a permanent decline in PC sales levelled out, and a new reporting structure highlights how much of the company’s revenue comes from companies rather than consumers. Investors are also enthusiastic about new boss Satya Nadella, who appears serious about both cutting costs and returning more capital to shareholders.当然某种程度是上述理由。正如伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)认为，一度奇特永久性的PC销售暴跌已稳定下来——这也有所协助，而且新的业报结构特别强调了微软公司的营收有多少来自企业，而非消费者。

投资者对新的掌门人萨帝亚·纳德纳(Satya Nadella)也很热情，他或许很侧重缩减成本和向股东归还更加多资本这两方面。Sustaining the rally depends on the balance between the growing bits of Microsoft (the business software unit and the “cloud” bit of the consumer business) and the shrinking bits (consumer licences for Windows and Office). It is hard to see how to predict that — except by simple extrapolation from current trends, which suggests the stock is fairly valued. Microsoft has already proved it can defy expectations, though.保持涨势各不相同在微软公司大大快速增长的业务（商用软件业务和消费者“云”业务）和大大衰退的业务（Windows操作系统和Office软件的消费者许可证书）两者间超过必要均衡。

很难显现出回应该如何预测——除了对当前趋势做到非常简单的外推，这种外推或许表明微软公司的股价估值公允。不过，微软公司早已证明自己需要超越市场预期。

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